Saturday, December 03, 2011

Barter to Gold to Currency to Barter


Initially it was barter, people exchanged goods/services of equal value amongst each other.
but it had few problems.
  • Availability of traders who have equal amount of goods/services that they want to trade.
  • Mutual trust between traders to judge the value of g/s.
  • It was difficult to store and carry these g/s across distance and time.
These problems grew as the society became larger and anonymous. Then came gold standards, which provided an asset class. Now people could charge in gold for there g/s and later could pay in gold to avail g/s. Although gold does not have any vital intrinsic value, it became universally accepted asset class. It solved the issue of barter system. But now the control went into the hands of owner of gold, instead of g/s producer and consumer.
Although gold was relatively easier to carry, but it was still a problem. So Goldsmiths came up with an idea to issue receipts against gold, which people can use just as gold. This was kinda currency backed by equal amount of gold. Then the goldsmith went one step ahead, and started renting out the gold on interest to people in need. And then the goldsmith went one giant step ahead and started giving out the receipts even when not having the sufficient gold. but beware, overdoing this would result in devaluation of currency and could also lead to failure of currency. This made him very powerful and had very high control over actual producer and consumer. Our governments and bank are also such kinda goldsmiths that controls the economy by floating and pulling currency.

Lender charges interest on currency that he gives out. But total amount of currency is controlled by goldsmith and not the producer. So from where would the borrower pay the interest. This extra money can be payed only when goldsmith puts in more currency in the system. This brings in the GDP number that represents this growth. Inflation is also a by-product. This balance is governed by goldsmith. Now the interest part can be very heavy for the producer, who does the actual work. This setup encourages money begets money philosophy instead of productivity begets g/s. this leads to possibility of creating balloons, that when busts, gives recession, crises etc..

Out of the whole journey so far, I guess we can have a system where barter is simulated with commodity backed currency and technology. Your account should contain various commodities, that will act as currency.
each commodity can be defined in following rows:
type brand qty expiry DeliveryPlace
rice A1    100 12 Aug 2012 Delhi
TCS  NULL  100 NULL NULL
Now just like various currencies are traded today, we can have exchanges that trade these commodities and thus govern conversion rates of commodities against other commodities. And using technology we can have system where people can charge in commodity for g/s and vice versa. This can eliminate issues that were deterrent for barter in a large system. Now the currency you hold will always be actual commodity, and the fair price would be self governed from the market. So the currency would never fail and there would not be inflation. Basically the control should be self governed by producers, consumers and traders.

Instead of interest, borrower should pay the lender by giving g/s he produces. eg - If A has crude, B borrows crude from A to produce petrol, then A would have to return petrol to B. This would encourage philosophy of productivity. And would curb the possibilities of balloons, recession etc..
Although possibility of .com bubbles would be there, but problems like sovereign debt europe crisis and subprime crises should not reoccur.

What are your views on the topic, do write as comments.
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11 comments:

Ali Irfan Reza said...

Thought-provoking. The encompassing of landscape across the ages shows a depth of vision. Past-Present-Future.
Well done. Keep writing Amit.
God Bless.

Madhusudan Garg said...

Looking quite interesting...but not completely clear with the new barter system..How the valuation will be done...And in what form you can carry the power to purchase???

Zombie said...

conceptually barter is just same as old barter, only the method of barter exchange is facilitated by intermediate commodity currency. Valuation will be done by free market and arbitragers..

Umesh Patel said...

Intriguing stuff and quiet visionary, I think. Virtualization extended to commodities. Valuation, I agree with Lunatic :), shall be done as it is done today (wrt to gold). . . Demand Vs Supply.

Vandana said...

I see just one issue... The issue that is faced today, things like auctioning to agree on prices of commodities internationally. The factors of cost of production/travel of commodities and dealing with local and global prices would be a pain and as there is no central body this distributed system would need too much coordination to work well.

Macmaniac said...

Hi Amit sir, this article is super good :)

You have done an amazing work by comparing the 3 instruments of trade. But I want more explanation towards the end where you explain (1) commodities and (2) currency exchange systems.

Thanks
Sourabh

Nilay Tripathi said...

Well written, very imaginative but ...

Barter works well only in geographically co-located small communities. Its a misconception that it would not see inflation of g/s or commodities. Inflation is fundamentally a demand-supply inference. Valuations based against a third thing than goods involved (like Gold) was the only natural progression. I do agree that there are faults (artificial gain or loss of the currency value other than actual value) but I don't think it can be done away with.

Food for thought!!

Zombie said...

wonderful comments, delicious thoughts :)

Hmmm, new system will surely have new challenges, but we actualy should not need a central body. prices should be governed by demand, supply and arbitragers.

Currency initially had gold standards and needed gold as the metal of monetary reserve, but later US gave up gold standard and moved to free trade of USD.
In last section I said to use commodities as monetary reserve. Then we can exchange various commodities just like various currencies are traded on forex exchange. So conceptualy barter system comes into place without the problems it initially had.

You correctly mentioned the limitation of geogrophic co-located small communities. That is where technology can bridge, to expand the possibilities.
Inftation occurs when government print currency in excess, OR when production cost increases, OR when country has to pay intrest on international debt.
Changing demand-supply can inflate only one commodity.

Shishir Maithani said...

Congratulations Amit on getting started with your blog! I must say a highly thought provoking article & you have opened a very sensitive topic. My 2 cents:

1) Paper Currency in itself is not a cause of inflation. It is just facilitating the trade, getting past all the shortfalls of barter system that we all understand. Inflation is more of a supply demand play with lot of geopolitics coming into picture specially in today's world (for eg. US attacking Iran, high oil prices shooting up the oil import bills of countries, in turn subsidy bills going up, more govt borrowing, more money being printed and cycle goes on).
The high levels of inflation we saw last year in India were due to high global commodity prices and supply side bottle neck for food grains.
With these variables in play, the supply driven push on inflation is beyond the control of barter system !

2) The debate ultimately comes down to neoclassical theory (free markets) Vs Keynesian economics (govt intervention). And the opinion has shifted continuously throughout the 20th century. The current economic situation is due to the failure of free markets and the economy is in dire need of govt support to pull the global economy out of the current mess. Bernanke is printing money and unfortunately it is the only way out (on the monetary policy side, a lot of work is required on the fiscal side)!

3) The third and the most important aspect is the fiscal responsibility of govts to manage their own financial statements. We look at Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece & Spain and realize that the fiscal mess requires Central Banks to print more money which will ultimately push inflation not today but 5 years down the line. Same is true of US. In India, we are also struggling with our own fiscal deficit levels, swelling subsidy bills, policy inaction, stagnated reforms and the list goes on. Here I am trying to drive in a point that investments into supply side infrastructure (food supply chain), power generation, coal mining etc will go a long way in curbing the inflationary demons in India !

4) As i have mentioned earlier as well, free markets have failed multiple times in the past due to the exuberance shown by the investor community and there is no reason why we will not see many booms & busts in the future. A barter system like Nilay said is limited to smaller communities, the market size cannot get large enough to ensure efficient pricing, the quality of commodities vary a lot, so establishing a uniform measure can be difficult, then there are logistics related issues, storage infrastructure etc etc. Therefore ,in today's highly globalised world returning to barter system requires a lot of other things in place and at the same time demand supply dynamics will still determine the prices !

5) And finally, Is inflation always a bad thing ? Think about Japanese economy, stagnated for over 2 decades, struggling with deflation. I think inflation is a lesser evil!


I may have gone off topic here. But as there are so many variables involved, couldn't help myself.

Thanks Amit for writing a nice article. Will look forward to reading many more !!

Zombie said...

truely there are numerous variable :)

Barter is itself based on demand-supply and cannot and does not intend to remove inflation or deflation of commodities. They are natural to happen and should happen. It should be headache of producers, on what amount should they produce so that it is not way under OR over the desired demand. However, barter can shunt the effect of inflation which is caused because of printing excess of currency.
I think the reason of failure of free trades is more because of unreasonable debts and not because of free trade. Bernanke, when prints money, actually makes a mockery of free trade. he says I don't need to work to pay my debts, and since world believes more in USD than actual commodity, I will print and give it to them!! Same goes for other soverign debt countries. Supply side infrastructure may take a long way, but thats the way it should be, at the end of the day I have to eat food and not currency.
In barter system we will not see these kind of boom & bursts because we will not be able to take or pay debts in phony utility like currency that we can print anytime.

I agree that quality difference, logistics related problems would be new set of problems that would grow. Can't really say how deep the rabbit hole would go. Yeah but even in today's scenario we can see commodites are already traded pretty decsently, and already provide a backbone of logistics along with price evaluation based on free trade. So I think by extending the current commodity trading we should not require a facilitator for trade.
Is inflation always a bad thing? - thanx dude for a new topic :), I guess I would share my views for inflation in the light of barter system in a separate post.

Zombie said...

I think MCX can issue commodity cards (debit cards), which can contain commodity credits that would be representation of commodity index. This way a sort of currency would start flowing, which would be backed with actual usable commodities.